Friday, October 10, 2008

Black Friday??

In a few hours the the Irish Stock Market, ISEQ, will open with an index price of in the upper 2k range. For a host of reasons I think today will see the ISEQ absolutely tank. The bail out, once copied, has not added the necessary confidence. The ECB rate cut is a nice little snifter for consumers but for corporate lending adds little.

Watch movement with the big four Irish banks. The contrasting shifts in Anglo Irish and BoI shares late yesterday suggest takeover chatter has spilled into investor speculation.

What to do, well. Auditors from outside this country should be sent in to the banks to examine the loan books and try get a true values of the balance sheets in the institutions. Only then can recapitalisation occur as the companies value will be clear (or clearer anyway).

Given the failure of the regulator and the Central Bank and the general stench of cronyism that pervades Irish life an audit done by the Central Bank or Dept of Finance is not going to engender confidence that's is needed.

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